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AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 was a transitional quarter: minimal revenue ($0.72M) with operating scale-up ahead of July Block 2 launches; adjusted cash OpEx rose to $44.9M as manufacturing ramped, while cash increased to $874.5M after financing .
  • Management outlined five contracted launches over the next 6–9 months, expected H2 2025 revenue opportunity of $50–$75M, and gateway equipment bookings of $13.6M in Q1 as commercialization precursors .
  • Cost per satellite estimate increased to $21–$23M (from $19–$21M) driven by higher launch costs and tariffs; Q2 capex guided to $230–$270M to support accelerated launch cadence .
  • Regulatory and government momentum: FCC STA granted for AT&T/Verizon testing, DIU contract ceiling up to $20M, ongoing $43M SDA milestones, and spectrum agreement for long-term access to up to 45 MHz lower mid-band L/L-S bands via Ligado restructuring .
  • Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q1 2025 EPS and revenue was unavailable; stock catalysts center on first Block 2 launch in July, gateway deployments, additional government awards, and progress closing the Ligado spectrum transaction .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “Inflection point”: five scheduled launches in 6–9 months; first Block 2 BlueBird ships in Q2 with July launch, enabling ramp toward continuous coverage in key markets in 2026 .
  • Commercial traction: Q1 gateway equipment bookings of $13.6M and expected ~$10M per quarter bookings through 2025; H2 2025 revenue opportunity of $50–$75M across commercial and government work .
  • Regulatory and partnerships: FCC STA for Band 14 FirstNet evaluation and AT&T/Verizon testing; DIU contract up to $20M via prime; coordination agreement with NSF for astronomy coexistence .

What Went Wrong

  • Costs rising: cost per satellite lifted to $21–$23M vs prior $19–$21M from higher launch costs and tariffs; Q2 capex guided sharply higher to $230–$270M .
  • Limited revenue base: GAAP revenue remained de minimis ($0.72M), with net loss widening YoY to $(45.7)M and EPS $(0.20), reflecting pre-monetization status .
  • Timing shifts: Q1 capex (~$120–$124M) came in below prior guidance ($150–$175M) due to payment timing, pushing spend into later quarters, a planning complexity for investors tracking liquidity .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$0.50 $1.92 $0.72
Net Loss Attributable to Common ($USD Millions)$(19.73) $(35.86) $(45.71)
EPS (Basic & Diluted, $)$(0.16) $(0.18) $(0.20)
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$56.00 $60.64 $63.68
Adjusted Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$31.12 $40.76 $44.90
Cash, Cash Equivalents & Restricted Cash ($USD Millions)N/A$567.53 $874.46
Operating Expense Breakdown ($USD Millions)Q1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Engineering Services Costs$19.51 $30.95 $27.20
General & Administrative Costs$12.29 $15.89 $18.38
Research & Development$4.26 $5.35 $7.14
Depreciation & Amortization$19.95 $8.46 $10.96
KPIs and Balance SheetQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Gateway Equipment Bookings ($USD Millions)N/AN/A$13.6
Expected Avg. Gateway Bookings per Quarter ($USD Millions)N/AN/A~$10.0
Capex (Operating & Capital Metrics, $USD Millions)N/A$86.0 $124.1
Purchase of Property & Equipment (Cash Flow, $USD Millions)$39.57 N/A$120.46
Gross Property & Equipment ($USD Millions)$326.4 $460.0 $584.1
Long-term Debt, net ($USD Millions)N/A$155.57 $462.20

Note: Street estimates were unavailable via S&P Global for Q1 2025; no estimate comparison provided [GetEstimates for Q1 2025 returned no data].

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted Cash OpEx ($USD Millions)Q2 2025~$40–$45 for Q1 2025 ~ $45 Maintained run-rate
Capex ($USD Millions)Q1 2025$150–$175 Actual ~$120–$124 (timing shift) Lower than guide (timing)
Capex ($USD Millions)Q2 2025N/A$230–$270 New / Raised sequentially
Cost per Satellite ($USD Millions)2025–2026$19–$21 $21–$23 Raised (launch/tariffs)
Revenue Opportunity ($USD Millions)H2 2025N/A$50–$75 (back-end loaded) New
Gateway Equipment Bookings ($USD Millions)2025 run-rateN/A~$10 per quarter New

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024)Previous Mentions (Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Launch cadence & providersSecured launch services; plan 45–60 satellites; multi-provider including New Glenn, SpaceX, ISRO Exercised options for ~60 satellites in 2025–26 5 launches in 6–9 months; July Block 2 start Accelerating
ASIC enablementASIC validation; 10x bandwidth vs FPGA Bring-up & initial validation complete ASIC available for integration as early as June; first batches FPGA; ASIC “1–2 launches” after next Nearing deployment
RegulatoryFCC STA filing for beta services FCC STA granted for AT&T/Verizon STA for FirstNet Band 14 evaluation; NSF coordination agreement Strengthening
Government pipelineSelected as SDA prime competitor; multiple contracts $43M SDA revenue contract; services model DIU contract up to $20M; 6 programs to date; “low tens of millions” over 12–18 months Broadening
Spectrum strategyLow-band sharing with MNOs Agreement for up to 45 MHz lower mid-band spectrum Ligado deal tracking; L-band support on Android; 1–2 phone iterations expected Advancing
Supply chain/tariffsCost per sat $19–$21 Maintained $19–$21 Raised to $21–$23 from launch/tariffs; tariff volatility noted Cost pressure
Product performanceFirst 5 BlueBirds operational; video calls AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone two-way video calls Live Rakuten two-way video in Japan; broad native app support Validating
Ground/gatewayU.S. gateways “ready”; Europe/Japan rollout Gateway sales to come H1 2025 $13.6M bookings; ~ $10M/qtr expected; 4+ U.S. gateways; 1–2 per country elsewhere Scaling

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “We are at an inflection point... five scheduled orbital launches over the next six to nine months. Commercially... in a position to start generating meaningful revenue during 2025.”
  • CEO: “Speed to orbit means speed to commercial service... manufacturing cadence of 6 satellites per month during the fourth quarter of this year.”
  • CFO: “Adjusted cash operating expenses of $44.9M vs $40.8M in Q4... Q2 adjusted cash OpEx ~ $45M; capex to increase significantly... to $230–$270M.”
  • CFO: “Cost per satellite... $21–$23M per satellite... driven by higher launch costs... and higher direct materials costs due to recently announced tariffs.”
  • CCO: “Gateway equipment bookings of $13.6M in Q1... expect ~$10M per quarter during 2025... leading indicator of markets for initial service revenue.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Launch costs/tariffs: Higher unit costs reflect pull-forward of launch capacity and tariff-driven materials; focus remains speed to market despite cost uptick .
  • Spectrum/Ligado: Mid-band L/L-S acquisition augments low-band sharing, enabling higher capacity/datarates (target 120 Mbps per cell); Android support in place; 1–2 phone cycles to broaden support .
  • ASIC timeline: First ASIC-equipped satellites targeted “1–2 launches after” the next launch; early batches remain FPGA .
  • Gateways economics: Low-margin but positive; bookings can be lumpy; deployment footprint relatively small due to large satellite FoV (e.g., 4+ U.S. gateways) .
  • Revenue mix H2: Government milestones (incl. SDA), gateway installs, and initial commercial activations expected to drive the $50–$75M opportunity .
  • U.S. launch timeline: Beta service targeted by end of 2025; commercial service early 2026 with full suite of services (text, data, video) .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus for Q1 2025 EPS, revenue, and EBITDA was unavailable; no beat/miss analysis can be provided at this time. Values retrieved from S&P Global (no values returned).

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term catalysts: July Block 2 launch, rapid cadence (1–2 months), DIU/SDA revenue milestones, and gateway installations should begin to translate into H2 revenue; monitor execution on five contracted launches .
  • Liquidity positioned for ramp: $874.5M cash at quarter-end plus new $500M ATM program enables manufacturing and launch commitments; watch disciplined ATM usage and quasi-government financing progress .
  • Cost inflation risks: Raised satellite unit cost and Q2 capex spike reflect launch market tightness and tariff impacts; unit economics to improve as ASICs deploy and scale benefits kick in .
  • Commercial path clarity: Definitive AT&T agreement, Vodafone Europe JV (SatCo), and Rakuten live demos underpin demand; track gateway bookings as service revenue leading indicator .
  • Spectrum optionality: Ligado mid-band access would materially expand capacity; follow bankruptcy/regulatory milestones and financing structure tied to spectrum asset .
  • Regulatory momentum: FCC STA supports U.S. beta; FirstNet Band 14 evaluation and NSF coordination demonstrate constructive regulatory posture and responsible operations .
  • Trading implication: Shares are now levered to execution on July launch and cadence, H2 revenue realization, and financing mix (ATM vs non-dilutive sources). Positive news on government awards or spectrum closing could be upside catalysts; delays or further cost inflation are key risks .